Soccer

Breaking Down Our Euro 2020 Predictive Model

Who is going to be victorious at Euro 2020? Well, we can’t be definitive on that. But with the help of our friends in the Stats Perform AI team, we can at least suggest what will be the most likeliest of outcomes.

Once you’ve finished watching this video, make sure you check out our full in-depth article on our predictive model along with the rest of our Euro 2020 content.

As a quick reminder though, here’s a brief explanation of how our model works:

Stats Perform’s Euros Prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

The model considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the “path to the final” by using the match outcome probabilities with the composition of the groups and the seedings into the knockout stages.

The Stats Perform Euros Prediction model simulates the remainder of the tournament 40,000 times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model returns the likelihood of progression for each team at each stage of the tournament to create our final predictions.