Willkommen, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa. Germany is getting a potential gem between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs, and the Philadelphia Eagles have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The fallout from last week and the NFL trade deadline has much of the remaining slate complicated by lesser-known names at quarterback such as Will Levis and Clayton Tune. All the more reason to turn to our data-led NFL Week 9 predictions.
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may be less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks, boldly dropping score predictions for each.
Week 9 begins Thursday with banged-up Kenny Pickett and the Steelers hosting Levis and the Titans, and it ends Monday with the Chargers visiting the Jets. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data – advanced and historical – and pumped it through our predictive model. Keep in mind this model uses our data only and nothing from the sports betting market to produce score projections, so there can be slight discrepancies in scores when considered against the percentages of our win probability model found elsewhere. These scores consider team news as of Wednesday. For those games close enough to be projected as ties, we outline at the bottom of this piece which of those teams have a slight edge in win probability.
We’ll start with the Dolphins and Chiefs showcasing in Frankfurt, Germany in what many would argue is an AFC title game preview. The supercomputer doesn’t disagree, giving the Chiefs the highest likelihood among AFC teams to reach the conference championship stage (42.9%) with the Dolphins next (32.1%). A lot can happen between Week 9 and January, but at a neutral venue in November, we’re predicting a 27-24 Chiefs win:
Move east from there to Atlanta, and a matchup of shall we say fresh quarterbacks figures to be a bit lower scoring. The now 4-4 Minnesota Vikings are looking for a fourth straight win. Is it possible to at once be the hottest team in the NFC while also falling apart key piece by key piece? They were already without all-world wide receiver Justin Jefferson. They’re now without quarterback Kirk Cousins and relying at least in the short term on Jaren Hall after dealing this week for Joshua Dobbs. But the Falcons are also in transition with Taylor Heinicke taking over for Desmond Ridder. Entering the week, our season-long model doesn’t have either of these teams as finishing the season above .500, but one will enter Week 10 at 5-4. Twenty could be plenty to win this one, and we’ve got the Falcons emerging at home by a 21-14 score.
The only intra-division game of the week is a big one and comes later Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia with the NFC East-leading Eagles hosting the Cowboys. The Eagles are the NFL’s only remaining one-loss team, and the Cowboys are earning a reputation for either disappointing or comprehensively destroying teams. Their two losses have come to the now 1-7 Arizona Cardinals and by 32 points to a San Francisco 49ers team that’s lost three straight since. The Cowboys’ five wins, however, have come by an average of 24.2 points. There are differing opinions on Dak Prescott, but no one in Dallas is going to question the value of putting up points on both sides of the ball. If the Eagles are going to correct their minus-3 turnover differential, this would be a fine game to get started. We’ve got them as three-point favorites at home:
Unmet expectations will quickly turn a team into the NFL’s Crisis Club of the Week. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals have been there during the 2023 season, yet both enter their Sunday night matchup over .500. The Bengals have won three straight to get to 4-3, but we’ve got the Bills quieting the Cincinnati crowd and winning on the road, 27-21.
Here’s a look at all 14 NFL Week 9 predictions, including Justin Herbert and the Chargers overcoming Zach Wilson and the Jets on Monday Night Football, the Saints beating the Bears by a touchdown, and the Bucs getting past the Texans by a point.
NFL Week 9 Predicted Scores
Thursday night:
- Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Tennessee Titans 17
Sunday morning (Frankfurt, Germany):
- Kansas City Chiefs 27, Miami Dolphins 24
Sunday:
- Atlanta Falcons 21, Minnesota Vikings 14
- Baltimore Ravens 21, Seattle Seahawks 21 (Win probability weighted by the moneyline gives the Ravens a slight advantage)
- New Orleans Saints 24, Chicago Bears 17
- Cleveland Browns 21, Arizona Cardinals 17
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Houston Texans 20
- New England Patriots 20, Washington Commanders 20 (Win probability weighted by the moneyline gives the Pats a slight advantage)
- Green Bay Packers 21, Los Angeles Rams 17
- Indianapolis Colts 24, Carolina Panthers 20
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Dallas Cowboys 21
- Las Vegas Raiders 21, New York Giants 17
Sunday night:
- Buffalo Bills 27, Cincinnati Bengals 21
Monday night:
- Los Angeles Chargers 21, New York Jets 20
Week 9 byes:
- Denver Broncos
- Detroit Lions
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- San Francisco 49ers
Don’t forget to check out our weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then you can use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week, when some of you may be interested in the 49ers’ trip to Jacksonville to test the Jaguars’ NFL-best five-game winning streak. Others may want to gawk at the draft implications of Panthers-Bears. We’re to the point in the season where for some fanbases want wins, some consider a loss a win. It can be a conflicting feeling, unless of course you’re a deadpan machine. To the supercomputer, it’s all just numbers.