The Detroit Lions have joined the select ranks of teams our model gives higher than a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl, but first things first: Can they beat the Los Angeles Chargers out west this weekend? For that and more questions about the other 13 games in our immediate future, let’s dip our toes into our data-driven Week 10 NFL predictions.
Each NFL week throughout the 2023 season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may be less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks, boldly dropping score predictions for each.
Week 10 begins Thursday with the Panthers visiting the Bears, and it ends Monday with the Bills hosting the Broncos. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data – advanced and historical – and pumped it through our predictive model. Keep in mind this model uses our data only and nothing from the sports betting market to produce score projections, so there can be slight discrepancies in scores when considered against the percentages of our win probability model found elsewhere. These scores consider team news as of Wednesday. For those games close enough to be projected as ties, we outline at the bottom of this piece which of those teams have a slight edge in win probability.
We’ll start with two teams hoping to continue winning streaks as the New Orleans Saints head north to take on the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints have started to settle in with Derek Carr at quarterback and are on the verge of winning three straight for the first time this season after beating the Bears by a touchdown last week. But Vikings fans are at least intrigued by their new QB. Joshua Dobbs had a 101.8 passer rating with 66 yards rushing against the Falcons last week, and he did that without knowing the playbook as the Kirk Cousins-less Vikings got to 5-4. Dobbs gives them something Cousins didn’t with his legs, and the last Minnesota quarterback with at least a 100.0 passer rating and 60 yards on the ground was Daunte Culpepper in December 2002. Another win would give them their second winning streak of at least five games since 2017. Dobbs is becoming someone who’s easy to root for, but the supercomputer doesn’t root. It’s about as emotional as a Bill Belichick press conference. Here’s its three-word answer: 21-20 Saints.
Onto the AFC North, where everyone’s in it but the 7-2 Ravens are in the driver’s seat. The Browns are visiting Baltimore on Sunday attempting to end the Ravens’ four-game winning streak. If that happens and the Steelers beat the Packers and Bengals beat the Texans, we’ll be looking at a division with four three-loss teams through 10 weeks of the season. It’s a nice thought, but the model has Baltimore prevailing 20-17.
In a later kickoff, the Lions are going to SoFi Stadium with a shot at getting to 7-2 for the first time since 2014. But the Chargers have won their last two convincingly and four of their last six after starting 0-2. Now it’s time for them to beat a good team. Their four wins have come against teams that enter Week 10 with a combined 15-20 record, but we’ve got them as 27-21 favorites at home to join the Chiefs above the .500 mark in the AFC West.
If close games among playoff contenders just aren’t your thing, Sunday afternoon viewers can also tune in for the NFC East matchup between the the 2-7 Giants and the 5-3 Cowboys. Daniel Jones is done for the season after suffering a torn ACL. It’s Tommy Devito’s turn under center, and the rookie’s first NFL start is coming against a team that beat the Giants by 40 to open the season two months ago. There’s very little about this screaming upset, so it’s no surprise the predictor has it as a double-digit win for the Cowboys (24-14).
The Broncos are coming off a bye on a two-game winning streak that includes a win over the defending Super Bowl champions. Russell Wilson and crew now get to display their progress on Monday Night Football. But both of those wins came in Denver. On the road, Sean Payton’s team only has a win over the Bears. Worse than a 1-2 road record, in those three games away from Mile High, the Broncos have allowed 1,586 net yards. That doesn’t bode well against a Bills team that – yes – has struggled of late but has also shown an ability to put up points with the third most in the league behind the Dolphins and Eagles. The Bills get their sixth win. The Broncos get their sixth loss. The AFC gets some semblance of order. 27-21 Buffalo.
Here’s a look at all 14 Week 10 NFL predictions, including Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud locked in a close one, Kyler Murray coming up short in his season debut against the Falcons, and the Bucs snapping a four-game losing streak with a four-point win over the Titans:
Week 10 NFL Picks and Predicted Scores
Thursday night:
- Chicago Bears 21, Carolina Panthers 17
Sunday:
- Indianapolis Colts 21, New England Patriots 21 (Win probability weighted by the moneyline gives the Colts a slight advantage)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Green Bay Packers 17
- New Orleans Saints 21, Minnesota Vikings 20
- Cincinnati Bengals 24, Houston Texans 24 (Win probability weighted by the moneyline gives the Bengals an advantage)
- Baltimore Ravens 20, Cleveland Browns 17
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Tennessee Titans 17
- San Francisco 49ers 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 21
- Los Angeles Chargers 27, Detroit Lions 21
- Atlanta Falcons 23, Arizona Cardinals 20
- Seattle Seahawks 24, Washington Commanders 21
- Dallas Cowboys 24, New York Giants 14
Sunday night:
- Las Vegas Raiders 20, New York Jets 17
Monday night:
- Buffalo Bills 27, Denver Broncos 21
Week 10 byes:
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Miami Dolphins
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Los Angeles Rams
In the fantasy world, don’t forget to check out our weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week for a pair of massive AFC North matchups with the Bengals taking on the Ravens and the Steelers visiting the Browns. But that’s just the appetizer. The main course? A Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs on Monday Night Football.