The Famous Toastery Bowl. The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. The Weed-Eater Independence Bowl.
Wait, the Weed-Eater Bowl is still around? OK maybe not.
Let’s face it, there are too many bowl games to keep track of as you prepare to pick your college football winners on ESPN’s Bowl Mania, your confidence pools with friends or wherever you’re making your selections.
But don’t worry, our trusty supercomputer is here to help. How does it calculate our projections? We simulated each game 1,000 times on a neutral field. If a team won 579 of those simulations, that team’s win probability was 57.9%. We sorted the probabilities from lowest to highest and assigned each of them a confidence ranking.
Our supercomputer, powered by TRACR, has spat out win probabilities for every bowl game, excluding the College Football Playoff contests, which we’ll reveal at a later date. TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency metric that evaluates how well a team performs based on who they play.
We’ve also added SmartRatings, which is an AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings. Those fall into these general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game) and 85-100 (Great Game).
So here are our projections for the 2023-24 college football bowl game schedule in chronological order, along with TV channels, matchup information (all times ET) and each team’s TRACR rankings.
You can go directly to each game by clicking on that bowl below. Good luck.
The Bowls
Myrtle Beach Bowl / New Orleans Bowl / Cure Bowl / New Mexico Bowl / LA Bowl / Independence Bowl / Famous Toastery Bowl / Frisco Bowl / Boca Raton Bowl / Gasparilla Bowl / Birmingham Bowl / Camellia Bowl / Armed Forced Bowl / Famous Idaho Potato Bowl / 68 Ventures Bowl / Las Vegas Bowl / Hawaii Bowl / Quick Lane Bowl / First Responder Bowl / Guaranteed Rate Bowl / Military Bowl / Mayo Bowl / Holiday Bowl / Texas Bowl / Fenway Bowl / Pinstripe Bowl / Pop-Tarts Bowl / Alamo Bowl / Gator Bowl / Sun Bowl / Liberty Bowl / Cotton Bowl / Peach Bowl / Music City Bowl / Orange Bowl / Arizona Bowl / ReliaQuest Bowl / Citrus Bowl / Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: No. 76 Georgia Southern vs. No. 78 Ohio
- Conway, South Carolina
- 11 a.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 64
- Projected Winner: Georgia Southern (59.3%)
- Data Points: These are two teams heading in different directions as the Bobcats (9-3) have won three in a row and the Eagles (6-6) have lost four straight. The ground game has been the key for Ohio, as Sieh Bangura has run for 325 yards and three touchdowns during that three-game run. However, Bangura, QB Kurtis Rourke and top WR Miles Cross are among those who could be opting out. The Eagles have a strong running attack of their own, ranking 47th in the nation in offensive TRACR on the ground. However, top running back Jalen White is questionable due to injury. OJ Arnold had 58 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in his place in a 55-27 loss at Appalachian State in the regular-season finale.
New Orleans Bowl: No. 68 Jacksonville State vs. No. 65 Louisiana
- New Orleans, Louisiana
- 2:15 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 68
- Projected Winner: Louisiana (53.3%)
- Data Points: Rich Rodriguez leads 8-4 Jacksonville State into its first bowl appearance against Louisiana (6-6), which snapped a three-game skid with a 52-21 win over Louisiana-Monroe in its last regular-season game. The Ragin’ Cajuns are playing in their sixth straight bowl game. Both teams have solid running games, with Louisiana ranking 42nd in offensive TRACR on the ground and Jacksonville State 47th. The Gamecocks, though, have been much better at stopping the run (14th in defensive TRACR against the run) than Louisiana (86th). Our supercomputer projects this one to be one of the closest games of the bowl season.
Cure Bowl: No. 75 Miami OH vs. No. 63 Appalachian State
- Orlando, Florida
- 3:30 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: 62
- Projected Winner: Appalachian State (56.0%)
- Data Points: Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year Joey Aguilar has thrown for an Appalachian State school-record 3,546 passing yards with 33 touchdown passes. The Mountaineers (8-5) had won five in a row before falling to Troy in the conference championship game. They’re 20th in the nation in offensive TRACR through the air and 37th in overall offensive TRACR. That approach may have to continue with top running back Nate Noel in the transfer portal. But 11-2 Miami (OH) has been strong defensively, ranking 52nd in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) against the pass and 54th overall. Linebacker Matt Salopek was the MAC defensive player of the year. Offensively, however, quarterback Aveon Smith could be out after entering the transfer portal.
New Mexico Bowl: No. 89 Fresno State vs. No. 57 New Mexico State
- Albuquerque, New Mexico
- 5:45 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 62
- Projected Winner: New Mexico State (73.7%)
- Data Points: Though they haven’t met since 2019, Fresno State has won 15 of the last 16 meetings. It could be different this time around for the Aggies (10-4), who have won eight of their last nine games if quarterback Diego Pavia (shoulder) and wide receivers Eli Stowers (concussion) and Trent Hudson (transfer portal) are in the lineup. The Bulldogs (8-4) have dropped three straight and Tim Skipper is filling in as the interim head coach with Jeff Tedford stepping away from the team due to health concerns. New Mexico State is 19th in the nation in offensive TRACR through the air, while Fresno State is just 85th in defensive TRACR against the pass. QB Logan Fife’s status, however, is uncertain after he entered the – say it with me now – transfer portal.
LA Bowl: No. 26 UCLA vs. No. 56 Boise State
- Inglewood, California
- 7:30 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: 62
- Projected Winner: UCLA (77.6%)
- Data Points: The Broncos (8-5) were left for dead after falling to 4-5 with a loss at Fresno State, but they rallied to win their last four games – including a 44-20 win over UNLV in the Mountain West title game. Chip Kelly’s UCLA (7-5) team has dropped three of its last four, putting up 10 points or less in all three losses. That might be a tough trend to break against the Broncos, who have held opponents under 21 points in five of their last six games. Offensively, Boise State has Mountain West offensive player of the year Ashton Jeanty and averaged 35.7 points over its last 11 contests. However, QB Taylen Green has entered the transfer portal. The Bruins have one of the best defenses in the country, ranking seventh in defensive TRACR. However, Lombardi Trophy winner Laiatu Latu (NFL Draft) will not play and defensive backs Kamari Ramsey and John Humphrey have entered the transfer portal. Starting QB Dante Moore has also put his name in the portal.
Independence Bowl: No. 55 Texas Tech vs. No. 62 Cal
- Shreveport, Louisiana
- 9:15 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 67
- Projected Winner: Texas Tech (52.4%)
- Data Points: Texas Tech received some big news on Dec. 11 when All-Big 12 running back Tahj Brooks announced he was returning to the Red Raiders next season and would play against the Bears. The same can’t be said about leading wide receiver Myles Price, who entered the transfer portal. Cal (6-6), which won its last three games, has a standout running back of its own in Jaydn Ott. He ranks seventh in the country with 114.5 rushing yards per game, while Brooks is fourth at 120.6 yards per game. The Red Raiders (6-6) had won three straight – including a 16-13 win at AP No. 19 Kansas – before falling 57-7 at No. 7 Texas in the regular-season finale.
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl: No. 84 Western Kentucky vs. No. 80 Old Dominion
- Charlotte, North Carolina
- 2:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 66
- Projected Winner: Old Dominion (51.0%)
- Data Points: Old Dominion (6-6) is feeling good heading into this one after beating Georgia Southern and Georgia State in dramatic fashion to become bowl eligible. Western Kentucky also won its last two games, upending Sam Houston and Florida International to finish 7-5. WKU, however, has three starting offensive linemen in the transfer portal. The Hilltoppers have won six of the seven meetings since 2014. The Monarchs were 11th in the Sun Belt with 22.9 points per game but could be without one of their top targets in Javon Harvey (transfer portal). Still, they should be able to generate some scoring against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks 99th in defensive TRACR.
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Frisco Bowl: No. 79 Marshall vs. No. 42 UTSA
- Frisco, Texas
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 59
- Projected Winner: UTSA (78.8%)
- Data Points: Marshall certainly wasn’t trending the right direction with six losses in seven games before beating Arkansas State 35-21 in the finale to earn a bowl bid. The Thundering Herd (6-6) have been up and down offensively, totaling 24 points in their last four losses but 73 in their last two wins. They probably won’t have quarterback Cam Fancher (transfer portal), but might not have have to face UTSA star edge rusher Trey Moore (transfer portal). UTSA had won seven in a row before falling to AP No. 18 Tulane 29-16 on Nov. 24. The Roadrunners (8-4) have averaged 37.9 points over their last eight games and our supercomputer gives them the advantage in Frisco.
Thursday, Dec. 21
Boca Raton Bowl: No. 100 USF vs. No. 72 Syracuse
- Boca Raton, Florida
- 8 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 69
- Projected Winner: Syracuse (69.0%)
- Data Points: Bulls first-year coach Alex Golesh directed quite a turnaround at South Florida, which went from 1-11 last year to 6-6 this season. Byrum Brown has set the school’s single-season passing record (3,078), while wide receiver Sean Atkins has the marks for receptions (86) and receiving yards (961). Syracuse only went 2-6 in the ACC and 6-6 overall, but interim head coach Nunzio Campanile guided the team to a 35-31 win over Wake Forest to gain bowl eligibility. LeQuint Allen Jr. led the way with a career-best 145 yards rushing yards, giving him 1,062 for the season. The Orange should be able to keep it going offensively against a South Florida team that ranks 107th nationally in defensive TRACR. The former Big East rivals haven’t met since 2016, but the Orange have won eight of the 10 meetings.
Friday, Dec. 22
Gasparilla Bowl: No. 58 Georgia Tech vs. No. 35 UCF
- Tampa, Florida
- 6:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 68
- Projected Winner: UCF (66.9%)
- Data Points: UCF (6-6) won’t be heading very far when it takes on Georgia Tech (6-6) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. It’s the second time in three years that UCF will play in the Gasparilla Bowl, defeating Florida 29-17 in 2021. The Knights, who won three of their last four games – including a shocking 45-3 rout of AP No. 15 Oklahoma State – to become bowl eligible, won 49-21 at Georgia Tech in 2020 and 27-10 at home last season. The Yellow Jackets were up and down all season, never winning more than two in a row and never losing two in a row. They put a scare into No. 1 Georgia in a 31-23 loss in the regular-season finale. This is a matchup featuring two of the nation’s top offenses (UCF is 22nd in offensive TRACR, while Georgia Tech is 28th), but the Knights have a clear advantage on defense (UCF 66th in D-TRACR/Yellow Jackets 109th).
Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl: No. 30 Troy vs. No. 37 Duke
- Birmingham, Alabama
- 12 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: 62
- Projected Winner: Troy (59.5%)
- Data Points: Will Duke (7-5) be able to contain running back Kimani Vidal, who rushed for 1,582 yards and 14 touchdowns for Troy (11-2)? The league’s offensive player of the year is coming off a 233-yard, five-TD performance in the Sun Belt title game. The Blue Devils have been pretty solid against the run, ranking 35th nationally in defensive TRACR. However, edge rusher R.J. Oben, DT Aeneas Peebles, linebacker Dorian Mausi and safety Jaylen Stinson are all in the transfer portal. Additionally, QB Riley Leonard and RB Jordan Waters are in the portal and interim coach Trooper Taylor will coach Duke after Mike Elko accepted the head coaching job at Texas A&M.
Camellia Bowl: No. 102 Arkansas State vs. No. 97 Northern Illinois
- Montgomery, Alabama
- 12 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 65
- Projected Winner: Northern Illinois (52.5%)
- Data Points: Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor, the Sun Belt freshman of the year, has thrown for 2,293 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for five scores. He leads an explosive offense that set a Sun Belt record for points in a 77-31 win over Texas State on Nov. 18. However, this is not the best matchup for the Red Wolves (6-6). Northern Illinois (6-6) ranks sixth nationally in passing yards allowed per game (163.9) and 48th in defensive TRACR against the pass. Running back Antario Brown, a first-team All-MAC pick, leads the Huskies with 1,164 yards and 10 TDs on the ground. Arkansas State is 111th in defensive TRACR against the run.
Armed Forces Bowl: No. 66 Air Force vs. No. 31 James Madison
- Fort Worth, Texas
- 3:30 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: 64
- Projected Winner: James Madison (73.0%)
- Data Points: James Madison’s bid for an unbeaten season fell by the wayside in a 26-23 loss to Appalachian State on Nov. 18. The Dukes did bounce back to close out the season 11-1 with a 56-14 rout at Coastal Carolina the following week. Jordan McCloud has had a banner year with 3,400 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, but JMU will be without star defensive lineman Jalen Green after he suffered a knee injury last month. Head coach Curt Cignetti is also gone after taking the job at Indiana earlier this month. Of course, Air Force (8-4) is known for its rushing attack and the Falcons have four players with at least 431 yards on the season. Air Force is 57th in offensive TRACR on the ground but likely to find the going tough against a JMU team that ranks fourth nationally in defensive TRACR against the run.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: No. 88 Georgia State vs. No. 93 Utah State
- Boise, Idaho
- 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 71
- Projected Winner: Georgia State (52.1%)
- Data Points: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Georgia State (6-6), which opened the season 6-1 before dropping its last five games. The Panthers have struggled offensively, averaging just 16.5 points over their past four. It certainly won’t help that running back Marcus Carroll and wideout Robert Lewis have entered the transfer portal. Utah State, however, has given up 86 points in its last two games and ranks 106th in the country in defensive TRACR. The Aggies won three of their last four games to become bowl eligible.
68 Ventures Bowl: No. 125 Eastern Michigan vs. No. 48 South Alabama
- Mobile, Alabama
- 7 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 57
- Projected Winner: South Alabama (92.0%)
- Data Points: While the supercomputer is the most confident in SMU (94.1% win probability) getting past Boston College in the Fenway Bowl, this one ranks second with South Alabama getting a 92.0% win probability. So while the model may not take much stock in Boston College playing in Boston, it does apparently like South Alabama playing on its home field at Hancock Whitney Stadium. The Jaguars enter this contest just 6-6 but they did have a notable 33-7 win at Oklahoma State, which went on to finish 9-4. Eastern Michigan (6-6) won its last two games to become eligible, but its facing an uphill battle as the No. 125 team in TRACR against 48th-ranked South Alabama. QB Austin Smith has entered the transfer portal for Eastern Michigan, while South Alabama leading WR Caullin Lacy is in the transfer portal and leading RB La’Damian Webb has opted out.
Las Vegas Bowl: No. 67 Northwestern vs. No. 34 Utah
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- 7:30 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: 60
- Projected Winner: Utah (71.5%)
- Data Points: It’s not really a surprise that Northwestern is the underdog in Vegas. After all, the Wildcats (7-5) have been underdogs ever since the season began. Big Ten coach of the year David Braun had the interim tag removed after leading the team to an incredible turnaround following last year’s 1-11 campaign. Utah (8-4) figures to have a decided advantage on the ground despite potentially not having QB Nate Johnson (transfer portal). The Utes ranked second in the Pac-12 in rushing (186.3 yards per game), while Northwestern was last in the Big Ten against the run (159.5 yards allowed per game).
Hawaii Bowl: No. 105 San Jose State vs. No. 69 Coastal Carolina
- Honolulu, Hawai’i
- 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 60
- Projected Winner: Coastal Carolina (70.5%)
- Data Points: Led by wide receiver Sam Pinckney (904 receiving yards, seven touchdowns), Coastal Carolina ranks 39th in the nation in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) through the air. The Chanticleers (7-5) should be able to do some damage throwing the ball against a San Jose State defense that is 109th in TRACR against the pass. The Spartans (7-5) bounced back from a 1-5 start to win their last six games – including a 37-31 win at 9-2 UNLV.
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: No. 109 Bowling Green vs. No. 81 Minnesota
- Detroit, Michigan
- 2 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 63
- Projected Winner: Minnesota (67.4%)
- Data Points: There are plenty of reasons not to like Minnesota in Detroit. The Gophers dropped their last four games to finish 5-7, only making the postseason because not enough teams reached the six wins to qualify. And starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis could be out after entering the transfer portal. But that doesn’t mean they won’t have an advantage over Bowling Green (7-5). The Gophers have been pretty balanced offensively, ranking 78th nationally in O-TRACR. The Falcons have won five of their last six, but they rank just 107th in defensive TRACR against the pass.
First Responder Bowl: No. 54 Texas State vs. No. 59 Rice
- Dallas, Texas
- 5:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 68
- Projected Winner: Texas State (54.3%)
- Data Points: In what our supercomputer sees as one of the tightest matchups of the bowl season, Texas State and Rice could be set to engage in an entertaining shootout. Running back Ismail Mahdi (1,209 yards, 10 TDs) and quarterback T.J. Finley (3,287 yards, 24 TDs) lead the Bobcats (7-5), who beat Baylor 42-31 in their season opener. Texas State put up 45 points or more four different times – including a 77-34 win over Jackson State on Sept. 16. The Bobcats rank 25th nationally in O-TRACR, while Rice is 55th. The Owls have been particularly proficient in the passing game, ranking 44th in O-TRACR through the air. QB J.T. Daniels has thrown for 2,443 yards and 21 TDs.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: No. 29 Kansas vs. No. 83 UNLV
- Phoenix, Arizona
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 65
- Projected Winner: Kansas (85.1%)
- Data Points: Kansas clinched bowl eligibility with a 38-33 upset of AP No. 6 Oklahoma on Oct. 28 and then nearly knocked off No. 23 Kansas State in a 31-27 loss on Nov. 18. The Jayhawks (8-4) should be heavily favored in what could be a high-scoring affair. QB Jason Bean has played well after taking over for injured Jalon Daniels and RB Devon Neal has rushed for 1,209 yards and 15 TDs. The Jayhawks rank 15th in O-TRACR, while UNLV ranks 50th but led the Mountain West conference with 34.3 points per game. The Rebels (9-4) are coming off a 44-20 loss to Boise State in the conference championship.
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl: No. 52 Tulane vs. No. 44 Virginia Tech
- Annapolis, Maryland
- 2 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 61
- Projected Winner: Virginia Tech (59.0%)
- Data Points: Yes, Tulane enters the contest 11-2 and ranked 23rd in the AP Top 25. But our supercomputer gives Virginia Tech, 6-6 out of the ACC, a slight edge in Annapolis. The Hokies are coming off a big 55-17 win over rival Virginia and have put up 131 points over their last three games. QB Kyron Drones has played well, totaling 688 yards with eight TDs and one interception over that span. Tulane ranks 34th in D-TRACR against the run, but just 63rd against the pass. The Green Wave had won 10 in a row before a 26-14 loss to AP No. 25 SMU in the AAC title game. Slade Nagle will be the team’s interim coach after Houston hired Willie Fritz away. Makhi Hughes was named the AAC rookie of the year after leading the AAC with 1,290 rushing yards.
Mayo Bowl: No. 33 North Carolina vs. No. 40 West Virginia
- Charlotte, North Carolina
- 5:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 62
- Projected Winner: North Carolina (56.2%)
- Data Points: UNC (8-4) will be without star quarterback Drake Maye, who announced he’s entering the NFL Draft and won’t play against the Mountaineers. Conner Harrell is set to take over at QB for UNC. Maye, who is projected to be a top-three pick, isn’t the only Tar Heel sitting out. The school has also said that All-ACC linebacker Cedric Gray, receiver Tez Walker, offensive lineman Corey Gaynor are among those sitting out. Standout running back Omarion Hampton remains and is likely to get a healthy workload in this one. The Mountaineers (8-4), who are led by QB Garrett Greene (2,178 yards, 15 TDs), have won four of their last five.
Holiday Bowl: No. 19 Louisville vs. No. 24 USC
- San Diego, California
- 8 p.m. ET | FOX
- SmartRating: 69
- Projected Winner: Louisville (65.3%)
- Data Points: Caleb Williams, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, will not play for the Trojans (7-5). Wide receiver Brenden Rice, son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Jerry Rice, and running back MarShawn Lloyd have also opted out. That takes some of the luster out of what would otherwise be an intriguing matchup. Backup QB Miller Moss was 23 of 32 for 309 yards and one TD in his four appearances this season, though freshman Malachi Nelson could also get the nod. Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer and top target Jamari Thrash will try to take advantage of a USC team that struggled down the stretch and ranks 89th in defensive TRACR against the pass. The Cardinals were 10-1 before falling to Kentucky and Florida State (ACC title game) in their last two contests.
Texas Bowl: No. 64 Oklahoma State vs. No. 17 Texas A&M
- Houston, Texas
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 69
- Projected Winner: Texas A&M (72.7%)
- Data Points: It’s been a rough year for the Aggies, who moved on from coach Jimbo Fischer before the end of the season and hired Duke coach Mike Elko. And star wideout Ainias Smith will miss their bowl game due to injury. He’s just one of a long list of players either in the transfer portal or who have opted out. The Aggies (7-5) have one of the best defenses in the nation – ranked 15th in D-TRACR – even without first-team AP All-American linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. The unit will try to contain running back Ollie Gordon II, who led the nation with 1,613 yards. Gordon was held to 34 yards on 13 carries in Oklahoma State’s (9-4) 49-21 loss to AP No. 7 Texas in the Big 12 title game.
Thursday, Dec. 28
Fenway Bowl: No. 14 SMU vs. No. 90 Boston College
- Boston, Massachusetts
- 11 a.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 59
- Projected Winner: SMU (94.1%)
- Data Points: Our supercomputer is more confident about SMU at Fenway Park than any other matchup of the bowl season, giving the Mustangs, 14th in our TRACR rankings, a 94.1% win probability. SMU (11-2) is coming off an AAC championship game win over AP No. 17 Tulane for the program’s first conference crown since winning the Southwest Conference in 1984. Boston College (6-6) allowed an average of 39.0 points while dropping its last three games after opening the season 6-3. That doesn’t bode well as it takes on a Mustangs team that ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 40.6 points per game. And edge rusher Elijah Roberts headlines a solid SMU defense. Yikes.
Pinstripe Bowl: No. 43 Rutgers vs. No. 28 Miami FL
- The Bronx, New York
- 2:15 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 65
- Projected Winner: Miami (FL) (61.3%)
- Data Points: Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was banged up and struggling, only playing off the bench in a 27-20 loss to AP No. 4 Florida State on Nov. 11. Now he’s in the transfer portal after throwing for 617 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the last two games. Xavier Restrepo has been outstanding with 14 receptions for 310 yards and a score in those contests. But the Hurricanes (7-5) could find the going a bit tougher against Rutgers (6-6), which ranks 12th nationally in D-TRACR against the pass. Gavin Wimsatt has thrown for 1,651 yards and nine TDs to go along with nine rushing scores, but he’s also thrown a pick in each of the Scarlet Knights’ four straight losses.
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 52 NC State vs. No. 22 Kansas State
- Orlando, Florida
- 5:45 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Kansas State (68.1%)
- Data Points: Kansas State quarterback Will Howard and top receiving threats Phillip Brooks and Ben Sinnott are in the transfer portal, but the Wildcats (8-4) offense is led by running back DJ Giddens. The sophomore has rushed for 331 yards and two touchdowns in the past three games and has 1,075 yards and nine scores on the season. As a result, Kansas State is ninth nationally in offensive TRACR on the ground. Can he keep it going against linebacker Payton Wilson and North Carolina State? The Wolfpack (9-3) are 19th in the AP Top 25 and 28th in defensive TRACR against the run, but our supercomputer gives the Wildcats the advantage in Orlando.
Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Arizona
- San Antonio, Texas
- 9:15 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Arizona (57.9%)
- Data Points: Originally, our model had projected this to be the closest matchup of any bowl, with the Sooners (10-2) getting a slight edge. These teams are separated by the smallest of margins in our TRACR rankings. But our model has given Arizona (9-3) the advantage after Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel announced he’s transferring to replace Bo Nix at Oregon. Gabriel has accounted for 3,660 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing TDs. Arizona is riding a six-game winning streak with sensational redshirt freshman quarterback Noah Fifita, who led all Power 5 QBs with a well-thrown percentage of 86.5.
Friday, Dec. 29
Gator Bowl: No. 27 Clemson vs. No. 47 Kentucky
- Jacksonville, Florida
- 12 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Clemson (63.8%)
- Data Points: Both running backs figure to get a lot of work in Jacksonville. Clemson’s Phil Mafah was sixth in the ACC with 894 rushing yards and teammate Will Shipley was seventh with 798. Kentucky’s Ray Davis ended up third in the SEC with 1,066 rushing yards. It’s an aspect of this matchup that should be interesting since Kentucky is 12th nationally in D-TRACR against the run and Clemson ranks 23rd. If the Tigers (8-4) do contain Davis, it would likely mean trouble for QB Devin Leary and the Wildcats (7-5) since Clemson is the nation’s No. 1 team in D-TRACR against the pass. However, star cornerback Nate Wiggins is out after declaring for the NFL Draft.
Sun Bowl: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Oregon State
- El Paso, Texas
- 2 p.m. | CBS
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Notre Dame (64.4%)
- Data Points: Behind running back Audric Estime, AP No. 15 Notre Dame is riding high heading into El Paso. The Irish have averaged 46.0 points while winning four of their last five games – including a 48-20 win over No. 10 USC. Estime averaged 129.8 rushing yards while totaling 11 touchdowns over that span. He rushed for a career-high 238 yards with four scores in a 56-23 win at Stanford in the regular-season finale. The Irish will likely continue to lean on him after QB Sam Hartman opted out and the team’s top three wideouts entered the transfer portal. Oregon State has been pretty solid against the run, ranking 25th in D-TRACR. The Beavers, however, will be without their head coach and quarterback as DJ Uiagalelei is re-entering the transfer portal and coach Jonathan Smith is leaving for the vacancy at Michigan State. Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts led the nation with seven picks.
Liberty Bowl: No. 53 Memphis vs. No. 38 Iowa State
- Memphis, Tennessee
- 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Iowa State (62.6%)
- Data Points: The Cyclones (7-5) earned a postseason bid with six wins in the tough Big 12, including victories over AP No. 22 Oklahoma State and No. 19 Kansas State. QB Rocco Becht leads an offense that will try to keep pace with a Memphis attack that ranked second in the AAC with 39.7 points per game. That seems entirely possible considering the Tigers (9-3) rank just 111th in the country in D-TRACR. Offensively, Blake Watson is one of the Tigers’ primary weapons with 1,045 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns and three receiving TDs. Iowa State has been tough against the run, ranking 18th in the nation in D-TRACR.
Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 21 Missouri
- Dallas, Texas
- 8 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Ohio State (74.3%)
- Data Points: Like a couple of other teams, you could argue that Ohio State belongs in the College Football Playoff. Instead, the 11-1 Buckeyes have been sent to Dallas to play the Tigers and might not have quarterback Kyle McCord (transfer portal), star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. (NFL Draft) and several others. Missouri (10-2) is no joke, beating AP No. 15 Kansas State, No. 24 Kentucky and No. 14 Tennessee and losing to No. 23 LSU and No. 1 Georgia by a total of 19 points. Sophomore Devin Brown, who completed 12-of-22 passes for 197 with two TDs and one pick in five games, will start at QB for the Buckeyes. Missouri running back Cody Schrader has been on a roll and led the SEC in rushing.
Saturday, Dec. 30
Peach Bowl: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 16 Ole Miss
- Atlanta, Georgia
- 12 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Penn State (70.5%)
- Data Points: Though they’ll have to play without star defensive end Chop Robinson (NFL Draft), the Nittany Lions (10-2) still have the top-ranked defensive in the country, per TRACR. They’ll be tested by quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Quinshon Judkins and a 10-2 Ole Miss team that ranks 15th in the nation in total offense and 18th in O-TRACR. Rebels coach Lane Kiffin said he’s not expecting any players to opt-out to prepare for the NFL Draft before the game. Penn State’s Drew Allar has thrown for 23 touchdowns and just one interception and the team led the Big Ten with 186.6 rushing yards per game.
Music City Bowl: No. 33 Auburn vs. No. 25 Maryland
- Nashville, Tennessee
- 2 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRatings: TBD
- Projected Winner: Auburn (50.8%)
- Data Points: With veteran quarterback Tualia Tagovailoa leading the way, Maryland (7-5) was second in the Big Ten in total offense at 393.8 yards per game. Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, paced the Big Ten with 281.4 passing yards per game. It likely won’t come as easy against Auburn (6-6), which is 24th in the nation in D-TRACR against the pass. Defensive tackle Marcus Harris has seven sacks for the Tigers, who hope to erase the memory of a last-second, heartbreaking loss to Alabama on Nov. 25.
Orange Bowl: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 2 Georgia
- Miami Gardens, Florida
- 4 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Georgia (60.1%)
- Data Points: At one point, this would have been one of the most exciting matchups of the bowl season. But after Georgia (12-1) lost its 29-game winning streak against Alabama in the SEC Championship and 13-0 Florida State was left out of the College Football Playoff by the committee, this contest is something of a consolation prize. With star QB Jordan Travis out with a broken leg, Tate Rodemaker is expected to start for the still-undefeated Seminoles. However, wide receiver Johnny Wilson won’t play as he’s leaving for the NFL Draft. The same goes for pass rusher Jared Verse. QB Carson Beck headlines a Georgia offense that ranks fourth nationally in O-TRACR.
Arizona Bowl: No. 101 Wyoming vs. No. 61 Toledo
- Tucson, Arizona
- 4:30 p.m. | Barstool
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Toledo (73.6%)
- Data Points: Toledo (11-2) had won 11 in a row before falling to Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship. With QB Dequan Finn in the transfer portal, Wyoming is likely to see a heavy dose of Peny Boone, who ranked sixth nationally with 1,400 rushing yards to go along with 15 touchdowns. The Cowboys were third in the Mountain West in rush defense, allowing 143.7 yards per game. Andrew Peasley enters the contest on a bit of a heater after totaling 484 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in back-to-back 42-6 wins over Hawaii and Nevada. The sixth-year QB also rushed for 96 yards and two TDs against the Wolfpack. Toledo, however, ranks 39th in the country in D-TRACR against the pass.
Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 6 LSU vs. No. 36 Wisconsin
- Tampa, Florida
- 12 p.m. | ESPN2
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: LSU (88.2%)
- Data Points: Unfortunately, there’s a good chance that Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels won’t play for LSU (9-3) as he’s expected to go high in the 2024 NFL Draft. But there has been speculation that he might play a series or two, just to give star wideout Malik Nabers (also a projected first-round pick) a chance to break Josh Reed’s school record for most career receiving yards. Wisconsin (7-5) is also expected to be short-handed after running back Braelon Allen, who rushed for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, announced he’s headed to the draft. The Badgers will certainly still run the football and LSU ranks just 103rd nationally in TRACR rush defense.
Citrus Bowl: No. 60 Iowa vs. No. 20 Tennessee
- Orlando, Florida
- 1 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Tennessee (80.2%)
- Data Points: All defense and not much offense. That pretty much sums up AP No. 20 Iowa, which has somehow used that formula to win 10 games and reach the Big Ten title game. Linebacker Jay Higgins is third in FBS with 11.9 tackles per game. The Hawkeyes (10-3) are ranked sixth in D-TRACR and only 13 programs in the country are worse than them offensively. No. 25 Tennessee (8-4) has been solid defensively as well, ranking 24th in D-TRACR. But will the Volunteers be able to put up points against Iowa? Quarterback Joe Milton III, who has thrown for 2,430 yards and 16 touchdowns, leads an offense that ranks 27th in O-TRACR.
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty
- Glendale, Arizona
- 1 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Oregon (84.3%)
- Data Points: The undefeated Flames (13-0) are 18th in the AP Top 25 and playing the first New Year’s Six bowl game in the program’s history. Running back Quinton Cooley leads a Liberty offense that leads the nation in rushing at 302.9 yards per game. Cooley has racked up a total of 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns on the season. He’ll face a tough test against AP No. 8 Oregon (11-2), which ranks 17th in D-TRACR against the run. But perhaps the biggest shocker here is that star quarterback Bo Nix says he will lead the nation’s No. 2 offense (per TRACR) despite heading to the NFL Draft. Leading running back Bucky Irving has opted out and more could be on the way. Oregon faces a Liberty team that was second in Conference USA in points allowed per game (22.7).
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