Arsenal look to regain their spot at the top of the Premier League as they welcome West Ham to the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. We look ahead to the game with our Arsenal vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs West Ham Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts a home win, with Arsenal victorious in 57.1% of data-powered simulations.
- West Ham have won just two of their last 30 games away to Arsenal (D6 L22).
- Jarrod Bowen will be looking to maintain his excellent away record this season, having scored seven goals on the road already in the Premier League.
Match Preview
Arsenal were top of the Premier League at Christmas, and will need to beat West Ham United on Thursday to ensure they also lead the way at the turn of the year.
Liverpool’s 2-0 victory at Burnley saw Jürgen Klopp’s men jump into first place on Boxing Day, though Arsenal were boosted in the title race by Manchester United’s dramatic 3-2 comeback win against Aston Villa later the same day.
The Gunners will fancy their chances against West Ham. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 12 home London derbies in the Premier League (W8 D4) since a 2-0 loss to Chelsea in August 2021. They have kept just one clean sheet in that time, though that did come against West Ham (2-0 in December 2021).
West Ham do not tend to end the year well, having only won their final league game once in the last seven calendar years (D2 L4) – a 4-1 victory at Watford in 2021. They have also lost the last four times they have finished the year with a London derby, since beating Charlton Athletic 5-0 in 2000.
Hammers boss David Moyes has a poor record away to Arsenal, having never won in 22 attempts in all competitions (D4 L18). The Scot has only faced Chelsea on the road more without ever winning in his managerial career (23).
Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka continues to look comfortable playing at the Emirates Stadium. He has been involved in 18 goals in his last 17 home games in all competitions, scoring 11 and assisting seven. Saka has also had a hand in three goals in his last four league games against West Ham (one goal, two assists), though the England man did miss a penalty against the Hammers at the London Stadium last season.
In-form Jarrod Bowen, on the other hand, has flourished on his travels. He has scored seven away goals for West Ham in the Premier League this season. Mike Small in 1991-92 (nine) was the last player to score more on the road in a top-flight campaign for the club.
As for team news, Arsenal will be without Kai Havertz after the Germany international was shown his fifth yellow card of the season in the 1-1 draw at Liverpool, while Takehiro Tomiyasu, Fabio Vieira, Thomas Partey and Jurrien Timber remain unavailable through injury.
The availability of Nayef Aguerd will be touch and go after the defender missed West Ham’s 2-0 win over Manchester United through illness, with Michail Antonio likely to be the only other absentee.
Arsenal vs West Ham Head-to-Head
Arsenal have a very strong home record against West Ham, winning 12 of their last 13 Premier League home games against them, with the exception being a 2-0 loss on the opening weekend of the 2015-16 season.
West Ham beat Arsenal three times in a row between February 2006 and April 2007, but in the 30 meetings since they have won just two (D6 L22).
Against no side have West Ham lost more Premier League games than they have against Arsenal (35, same as against Liverpool), while Arsenal only have more wins in the competition against Everton (37).
Arsenal won this fixture 3-1 on Boxing Day last year, though had to come from behind to do so. They then played out a 2-2 draw at London Stadium in April as the Gunners’ Premier League title challenge against Man City faltered.
West Ham did win their last encounter, though, beating Arsenal 3-1 in the EFL Cup fourth round last month as star midfielder Declan Rice played against his former side for the first time.
Recent Form
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 13 home games in all competitions (W11 D2) since a 3-0 loss to Brighton in May. The Gunners have won their last seven at the Emirates Stadium by an aggregate score of 21-2.
Mikel Arteta’s side have won just one of their last four games in all competitions (D2 L1), though that did include a 1-1 draw away to PSV in their final Champions League group game, which was essentially a dead rubber for them as they had already secured top spot in their group. The Gunners were very impressive in their recent 2-0 home win against Brighton, while they claimed a good point at Liverpool last time out, with Gabriel’s early header cancelled out by a Mohamed Salah strike.
West Ham have won four of their nine Premier League away games this season (D1 L4), already more than they won on the road in the whole of last season (W3 D3 L13). However, the Hammers are without a clean sheet in their last 13 away from home in the league, shipping 31 goals in the process.
The Hammers have won four of their last six games in all competitions, though did concede five goals in the each of their two defeats in that run (5-0 v Fulham in the Premier League, 5-1 v Liverpool in the EFL Cup). Their last two league wins saw them beat Wolves and Man Utd at home, but West Ham’s most recent away win did come in north London, beating Tottenham 2-1 earlier this month. Their other win in that run came against Freiburg in the Europa League.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in this game, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs West Ham Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Arsenal
Declan Rice: 80.6 (out of 100)
Oleksandr Zinchenko: 80.5
Martin Ødegaard: 78.1
Ben White: 74.6
William Saliba: 73.0
West Ham
Mohammed Kudus: 79.9
Jarrod Bowen: 79.3
James Ward-Prowse: 75.3
Emerson: 69.6
Kurt Zouma: 66.6
Arsenal vs West Ham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal’s strong home record against West Ham. Arteta’s side won 57.1% of the 10,000 simulations carried out by the supercomputer before kick-off.
Never rule the Hammers out, though, as they took all three points away from the Emirates 18.5% of the time, while a draw occurred on 24.4% of occasions.
Arsenal remain second favourites to win the title behind defending champions Manchester City. Heading into this one, the Gunners are judged to have a 27.3% chance of securing their first league title since 2003-04.
West Ham have had a bit of a mixed campaign so far, but the supercomputer believes they can finish strongly. Their likeliest finish in the league table as things stand is sixth, which would secure European football again.
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