Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every matchup. No matter if it’s a potential Super Bowl preview like Ravens-49ers or a game we’re not quite as excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through our model’s NFL picks.
Week 16 kicks off Thursday with the Saints visiting the Rams and ends on Christmas with three games featuring four legitimate Super Bowl contenders. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data and pumped it through our predictive model. Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shakes things up. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.
Thursday, Dec. 21
New Orleans Saints 35.7% at Los Angeles Rams 64.3% (8:15 p.m. | Prime Video)
Sometimes with Thursday Night Football in December, you’re happy if one team is still in playoff contention. This week, we get two 7-7 teams with realistic chances of making the playoffs. If the Rams lose, that likelihood may fall off a cliff, depending on other Week 16 outcomes. The Rams enter the week with a 48.4% chance, while the Saints are fractionally behind at 43.5%. If that seems backward because the Saints still have a very realistic path toward winning their division, it’s because the supercomputer is rather confident the Rams will win this game at home to get to eight wins heading into a Week 17 matchup with the Giants.
Saturday, Dec. 23
Cincinnati Bengals 54.9% at Pittsburgh Steelers 45.1% (4:30 p.m. | NBC)
The Bengals were up against it last week with the Minnesota Vikings looking like they were going to leave Cincinnati with an 8-6 record. Instead, it was Jake Browning executing a comeback win against his former organization to get to 8-6 and increase their chances of making the playoffs to 40.0%. It doesn’t get any less consequential this week against an AFC North rival in serious need of a win. Our model thinks Browning & Co. will get it done on the road this time to drop the Steelers to 7-8 and put them on the verge of their first losing season since 2003.
Buffalo Bills 75.8% at Los Angeles Chargers 24.2% (8:00 p.m. | NBC)
Josh Allen has both thrown and rushed for a touchdown in five consecutive road games. That’s the longest such streak on the road in NFL history, besting four-game streaks from Mike Phipps in 1972 and Y.A. Tittle in 1953. And we like Allen and his Bills (8-6) on Saturday as they play the Chargers (5-9) in SoFi Stadium, giving Buffalo a 75.8% chance of earning the victory:
Sunday, Dec. 24
Indianapolis Colts 45.6% at Atlanta Falcons 54.4% (1 p.m. | FOX)
The Falcons enter this matchup at 6-8, but with that record comes a nearly 20% chance of making the playoffs. Such is life in the NFC South. The Colts are 8-6 along with two other teams in the AFC South, thanks in large part to the Jaguars’ three-game losing streak. Both divisions are up for grabs, and our model sees Atlanta staying very much alive in its division race with a close win on Christmas Eve.
Green Bay Packers 63.1% at Carolina Panthers 36.9% (1 p.m. | FOX)
Since beating the Chiefs to start December, the Packers have all but let their season slip away with consecutive losses to the Giants and Bucs. At 6-8 entering this week, the playoffs are unlikely (12.4%), but we’re confident in a road win to keep those slim hopes alive before concluding the season against the Vikings and Bears.
Cleveland Browns 42.5% at Houston Texans 57.5% (1 p.m. | CBS)
Two teams in the thick of the AFC playoff race are Cleveland at 9-5 and Houston at 8-6. The Texans already have five more wins than they had last season, the largest increase in the NFL. Cleveland has also already exceeded its win total after winning seven times last season. We think Houston has the advantage at home with a win probability of 57.5%:
Detroit Lions 57.6% at Minnesota Vikings 42.4% (1 p.m. | FOX)
The 10-win Lions are one of four teams entering Week 16 with higher than a 90% chance of winning their division (92.8%). Should they beat the Vikings in Minnesota on Sunday, they’ll secure their first division title since finishing atop the old NFC Central in 1993. A win would also match their 2014 win total for their best since winning 12 games in 1991. The Vikings, meanwhile, enter the week with a 45.8% chance of reaching the postseason. If they’re able to beat the Lions, the division race all of the sudden becomes much more interesting with the teams again meeting in Week 18 after the Lions have to face the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 17.
Washington Commanders 39.0% at New York Jets 61.0% (1 p.m. | CBS)
A 5-9 team with higher than a 60% chance of winning is a sure sign of a game that’s going to have more to do with draft status than playoff positions. A Washington loss would mark its first six-game losing streak in the same regular season since 2014. The season before that, it dropped its last eight. A decade later, the Commanders may be able to match that since they conclude the season against the 49ers and Cowboys. That may be exactly what they’re after considering they benched Sam Howell last week and are probably considering drafting a quarterback like half of the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks 55.2% at Tennessee Titans 44.8% (1 p.m. | CBS)
The Seahawks (7-7) just beat the Eagles to end a four-game losing streak. The Titans (5-9) just lost to the C.J. Stroud-less Texans a week after beating the Dolphins. So this week the Seahawks are playing against the recent cautionary tale of a slip-up following a signature win, but at least they’re favored.
Jacksonville Jaguars 45.8% at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 54.2% (4:05 p.m. | ABC/CBS)
All three of Florida’s teams are in control of their divisions with the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) hosting the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) on Christmas Eve. Last week at Green Bay, Baker Mayfield became the first Bucs quarterback to ever have a perfect passer rating and 350-plus passing yards in the same game. And we give Mayfield the slight advantage this weekend with a win probability of 54.2% to hand the Jags their fourth straight loss:
Arizona Cardinals 35.7% at Chicago Bears 64.3% (4:25 p.m. | FOX)
A game being played during the 2023 season that only has implications for 2024. Where will each of these teams pick in the 2024 NFL Draft? And will either Kyler Murray or Justin Fields be a part of their current roster when they do? The only outcome that’ll surprise the supercomputer is a Week 16 win for the Cardinals.
Dallas Cowboys 44.2% at Miami Dolphins 55.8% (4:25 p.m. | FOX)
If Dallas doesn’t soon prove it can beat a good team on the road, it’ll be burdened with having to do it in the playoffs. Nevertheless, the Cowboys (12.2%) and Dolphins (9.8%) are among the top five teams most likely to win the Super Bowl. Our win probability for this one shows Miami with the edge at 55.8%, opening the door for Philadelphia to retake control of the NFC East:
New England Patriots 29.3% at Denver Broncos 70.7% (8:15 p.m. | ABC/NFL Network)
The Broncos didn’t look like 70% favorites to beat anyone last week in Detroit, but the remedy for that is a home contest against the 3-11 Patriots. At 7-7, Denver still has a 10.8% chance of making the playoffs. That’s because the Broncos’ remaining schedule is very manageable with another home game against the Chargers next week followed by a regular-season finale in Las Vegas.
Monday, Dec. 25
Las Vegas Raiders 19.8% at Kansas City Chiefs 80.2% (1 p.m. | ABC/CBS)
The Raiders ran it up on the Chargers last week, but it’s not as simple as scoring 63 points one week to win the supercomputer over the next. The model is confident the AFC West-leading Chiefs are going to beat the Raiders for a seventh straight time to get to 10 wins for the ninth straight season.
New York Giants 17.9% at Philadelphia Eagles 82.1% (4:30 p.m. | FOX)
The highest pregame win probability of the week belongs to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, a team the supercomputer loved coming into the season and certainly hasn’t given up on despite a three-game losing streak. A victory would put the Eagles at 11-4 and mean the Cowboys would need to precede this game with a win over the Dolphins in Miami to keep pace in the NFC East.
Baltimore Ravens 32.3% at San Francisco 49ers 67.7% (8:15 pm. | ABC)
Open the best present last. According to our current season projections, the two teams most likely to reach the Super Bowl are the 49ers (37.6%) and the Ravens (25.0%). And those two teams will meet on Christmas in a rematch of Super Bowl 47. And we see San Francisco as a fairly large home favorite on Monday Night Football with a 67.7% chance of getting to 12-3 while denying Baltimore the same record:
Here’s one last look at each game with the favorites listed first:
NFL Week 16 Picks
Thursday:
- Los Angeles Rams 64.3%, New Orleans Saints 35.7%
Saturday:
- Cincinnati Bengals 54.9%, Pittsburgh Steelers 45.1%
- Buffalo Bills 75.8%, Los Angeles Chargers 24.2%
Sunday:
- Atlanta Falcons 54.4%, Indianapolis Colts 45.6%
- Green Bay Packers 63.1%, Carolina Panthers 36.9%
- Houston Texans 57.5%, Cleveland Browns 42.5%
- Detroit Lions 57.6%, Minnesota Vikings 42.4%
- New York Jets 61.0%, Washington Commanders 39.0%
- Seattle Seahawks 55.2%, Tennessee Titans 44.8%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 54.2%, Jacksonville Jaguars 45.8%
- Chicago Bears 64.3%, Arizona Cardinals 35.7%
- Miami Dolphins 55.8%, Dallas Cowboys 44.2%
- Denver Broncos 70.7%, New England Patriots 29.3%
Monday:
- Kansas City Chiefs 80.2%, Las Vegas Raiders 19.8%
- Philadelphia Eagles 82.1%, New York Giants 17.9%
- San Francisco 49ers 67.7%, Baltimore Ravens 32.3%
If fantasy football is more your thing and you need a hand in the playoffs, check out our weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week for a potential AFC title game preview of the Dolphins visiting the Ravens.