The two outsiders in Group C meet on Friday, with both looking to pick up their first of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations. We look ahead to it with our Guinea vs Gambia prediction and preview.

Guinea vs Gambia: Pre-Match Facts

  • According to the Opta supercomputer, Guinea are predicted to beat Gambia in this match, winning in 48.3% of the model’s pre-match simulations.
  • This will be the second meeting between Guinea and Gambia at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations after facing off in the last 16 of the 2022 edition. The game resulted in a 1-0 win for Gambia (Musa Barrow goal) and two red cards.
  • With Gambia only making their Africa Cup of Nations debut in 2022, Guinea are the first opponents they’ll face more than once in the competition, while a victory against the National Elephants would account for 50% of their wins in the competition (2/4).
  • Following their 1-1 draw with Cameroon, Guinea could go unbeaten in their opening two games in consecutive Africa Cup of Nations (W1 D1 in 2022) for the first time since 2004 (W1 D1) and 2006 (W2).
  • After going unbeaten in their first four games at the Africa Cup of Nations (W3 D1), Gambia have lost their last two matches without scoring.
  • Guinea are winless in four AFCON games (D2 L2), while they’ve only won two of their 14 in the competition (D7 L5).
  • Gambia have conceded five goals in their last two AFCON matches, after only conceding once across their first four games in the competition.
  • Guinea’s last 10 AFCON games have seen them alternate between scoring (7 in total) and failing to score (W2 D3 L5), only losing one of these matches when scoring (2-1 against Zimbabwe in January 2022).
  • Musa Barrow has been directly involved in 100% of Gambia’s goals at the Africa Cup of Nations (4/4), scoring two and assisting two. He was involved in 60% of his team’s shots against Senegal in MD 1 (two shots, four chances created).
  • Guinea had just six shots in their first match of AFCON 2023 against Cameroon; only once on record (since 2010) have they had fewer in a single game in the competition – five against Senegal in January 2022.
  • Following Mohamed Bayo’s goal for Guinea against Cameroon in MD 1, six of their last seven goals at the Africa Cup of Nations have been scored by players who play their club football in France and since 2006, Guinea have scored the most goals (20) by such players in the competition.

Match Preview

Matchday 2 in Group C ends with the two outsiders, Guinea and Gambia, both looking to find their first win of the tournament.

Guinea held Cameroon to a 1-1 draw in the opening round of games. They took an early lead through Mohamed Bayo and could well have held onto that advantage had captain François Kamano not seen a straight red card towards the end of the first half. Frank Magri equalised for Cameroon, and left Guinea winless in their last four Africa Cup of Nations matches (D2 L2).

Cameroon v Guinea stats

Gambia were comprehensively beaten 3-0 by Senegal on MD 1. They too were reduced to 10 men on the stroke of half-time, with Ebou Adams dismissed for raking his studs down Lamine Camara’s Achilles. Camara went on to bag a brace in the second period, after Pape Gueye had opened the scoring after four minutes. That result meant after going unbeaten in their first four games at the Africa Cup of Nations (W3 D1), Gambia have lost their last two matches without scoring.

Senegal 3-0 Gambia xG stats

Guinea vs Gambia Head-to-Head

This will be the second meeting between Guinea and Gambia at the Africa Cup of Nations after facing off in the last 16 of the 2022 edition. The game resulted in a 1-0 win for Gambia (Musa Barrow with the goal) and two red cards.

Guinea vs Gambia Prediction

Guinea vs Gambia Prediction Opta

According to the Opta supercomputer, it’s Guinea who are the favourites in this tie. They are given a 48.3% of picking up their first win of the tournament, consigning Gambia (27.2%) to their second defeat. The draw occurred 24.5% of the time.

Both teams are very much outsiders in our overall tournament predictions. At the time of writing, Guinea are given just a 1.8% chance of winning the title, and Gambia are our second-longest side at 0.2%. Below are each team’s current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer. Both Guinea and Gambia are up against it even if they want to qualify for the last 16.

Guinea vs Gambia Squads

Guinea: Ibrahim Koné, Aly Keita, Moussa Camara, Mohamed Ali Camara, Sekou Sylla, Julian Jeanvier, Saïdou Sow, Mouctar Diakhaby, Antoine Conté, Issiaga Sylla, Ibrahim Diakité, Seydouba Cissé, Amadou Diawara, Naby Keïta, Mory Konaté, Ilaix Moriba, Abdoulaye Touré, Aguibou Camara, Mohamed Bayo, José Kanté, Serhou Guirassy, Morgan Guilavogui, Facinet Conté, Karim Cissé, François Kamano. 

Coach: Kaba Diawara 

Gambia: Modou Jobe, Lamin Sarr, Baboucarr Gaye, Ibou Touray, Omar Colley, Bubacarr Sanneh, Saidy Janko, James Gomez, Noah Sonko Sundberg, Jacob Mendy, Muhammed Sanneh, Sulayman Marreh, Ablie Jallow, Dawda Ngum, Alasana Manneh, Yusupha Bobb, Hamza Barry, Ebou Adams, Ebrima Darboe, Assan Ceesay, Muhammed Badamosi, Abdoulie Sanyang, Musa Barrow, Ebrima Colley, Yankuba Minteh, Alieu Fadera, Ali Sowe. 

Coach: Tom Saintfiet 

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