The second match in Group E at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations takes place on Tuesday. We look ahead to it with our Mali vs South Africa prediction and preview.

Mali vs South Africa: Pre-Match Facts

  • According to the Opta supercomputer, Mali are predicted to get their 2023 AFCON campaign off to a positive start, winning this match in 43.5% of pre-match simulations.
  • This will be the third encounter between Mali and South Africa at the Africa Cup of Nations. The two previous meetings saw Mali prevail, both times in the quarter-finals: 2-0 in the 2002 edition and on penalties in 2013 (1-1 after extra-time, 3-1 on penalties).
  • This is Mali’s 13th participation in the Africa Cup of Nations, including their ninth in a row; no side has played as many games as Mali (54) at AFCON without ever winning the trophy. Their best performance dates back to 1972 – Mali lost 3-2 in the final against Congo.
  • Mali have never lost their opening game of an AFCON (W7 D5). However, they have also never won consecutive matches at a single tournament since 2004.
  • Only Nigeria (22) scored more goals than Mali (15) in the qualifiers for this year’s Africa Cup of Nations while only Tunisia (1) conceded fewer goals.
  • Four of Mali’s last nine goals at the Africa Cup of Nations have been scored from the penalty spot. The last three penalties were all converted by Ibrahima Koné in the 2021 edition.
  • This is South Africa’s 11th participation in the Africa Cup of Nations, and their first since 2019. Their only AFCON title dates back to 1996, when they won as hosts.
  • South Africa reached the final four of the Africa Cup of Nations in each of their first three participations (first in 1996, second in 1998, third in 2000). Since then, they have never progressed further than the quarter-finals, winning only three of their last 20 matches (D7 L10).
  • South Africa have not scored more than one goal in their last nine matches at the Africa Cup of Nations. The last time they did was against Morocco in the 2013 group stages (2-2).
  • Among the 24 teams that will feature in AFCON 2023, none conceded more goals per game than South Africa in the qualifiers (1.5 per game, six in four games).
  • Moussa Doumbia has assisted Mali’s last three goals scored in open play at the Africa Cup of Nations. He’s scored six goals for the Mali national team, more than any other player in the squad for the 2023 AFCON.
  • South Africa boss Hugo Broos is taking part in his second CAF Africa Cup of Nations as manager – he led Cameroon to the trophy in 2017.

Match Preview

Monday night’s game between Mali and South Africa will be the second of Group E in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations. These two sides, together with Tunisia and Namibia, make up what looks like the most even group on paper. All four teams have a realistic shot of qualifying for the last 16. According to the Opta supercomputer, Mali have a 74.9% chance of doing just that, while their first opponents of the tournament, South Africa, have a 66.8% likelihood of progression.

Mali qualified for AFCON 2023 as winners of Group G, ahead of Gambia, Congo and South Sudan. They finished with 15 points from their six games, only dropping points in a 1-0 loss to second place Gambia. Across all qualified teams, only Algeria finished their group with more points (16).

Mali are AFCON regulars. This is their 13th participation in the Africa Cup of Nations, including their ninth in a row; no side has played as many games as Mali (54) at the tournament without ever winning the trophy. Their best performance dates back to 1972 when they lost 3-2 in the final against Congo.

Recent editions have seen them progress from the group stage before being knocked out at the next hurdle. They reached the round of 16 in the last two AFCON tournaments, but lost to Ivory Coast and Equatorial Guinea in 2019 and 2021 respectively. Despite an injury crisis coming into the tournament – coach Éric Chelle will be without big players in Ibrahima Koné, Crystal Palace’s Cheick Doucouré, Massadio Haïdara and former Southampton winger Moussa Djenepo – they’ll be hoping to go better than that this year.

South Africa qualified for AFCON 2023 as runners-up of Group K, ahead of Liberia and the disqualified Zimbabwe. They got seven points in their four games, with their only loss coming against group winners Morocco, who were also one of only two teams to qualify earlier than South Africa, who secured their spot on the March 28, 2023 (Morocco: March 24 2023, and Algeria: March 27 2023).

South Africa have previously participated at the AFCON 10 times. They won their first ever AFCON as hosts in 1996, beating Tunisia 2-0 in the final in Johannesburg, but after that heady win, Bafana Bafana have struggled to shine in their subsequent nine AFCON appearances. Their most recent campaign was in 2019, when they reached the quarter-finals but lost 2-1 to Nigeria.

More than half of the squad currently play for Mamelodi Sundowns, who have been the most dominant club in South African club football over the last decade.

The South African side are currently the top-ranked club team in Africa based on the Opta Power Rankings:

Mali vs South Africa Head-to-Head

This will be the third encounter between Mali and South Africa at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations. The two previous meetings saw Mali prevail, both times in the quarter-finals: 2-0 in the 2002 edition and on penalties in 2013 (1-1 after extra-time, 3-1 on penalties).

Mali vs South Africa Prediction

Mali vs South Africa Prediction Opta

According to the Opta supercomputer, Mali are predicted to get their 2023 AFCON campaign off to a positive start, winning this match in 43.5% of pre-match simulations. South Africa took all three points in 30.6% of those, while the draw occurred 25.8% of the time.

In the week leading up to AFCON 2023, our pre-tournament predictions had both of these sides as outside shots for the title. Mali won AFCON 2023 in 3.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations, while South Africa won it 2.4% of the time.

Below are each team’s current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer:

Mali vs South Africa Squads

Mali: Djigui Diarra, Aboubacar Doumbia, Ismaël Diawara, Mamadou Fofana I, Kiki Kouyaté, Sikou Niakaté, Hamari Traoré, Amadou Danté, Falaye Sacko, Moussa Diarra, Lassana Coulibaly, Adama Traoré, Yves Bissouma, Amadou Haidara, Aliou Dieng, Diadié Samassékou, Kamory Doumbia, Boubacar Traoré, Mohamed Camara, Moussa Doumbia, Sékou Koïta, Fousseni Diabaté, Ibrahim Sissoko, Lassine Sinayoko, Siriné Doucouré, Youssoufou Niakaté, Nene Dorgeles.

Coach: Éric Chelle

South Africa: Ronwen Williams, Ricardo Goss, Veli Mothwa, Siyanda Xulu, Tapelo Xoki, Khuliso Mudau, Mothobi Mvala, Nyiko Mobbie, Nkosinathi Sibisi, Terrence Mashego, Thapelo Morena, Grant Kekana, Themba Zwane, Teboho Mokoena, Sibongiseni Mthethwa, Thabang Monare, Aubrey Modiba, Oswin Appollis, Sphephelo Sithole, Jayden Adams, Thapelo Maseko, Elias Mokwana, Percy Tau, Evidence Makgopa, Iqraam Rayners, Zakhele Lepasa, Mihlali Mayambela.

Coach: Hugo Broos

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our new football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.