We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Brighton vs Everton prediction and preview. Can Sean Dyche’s Toffees repeat last May’s remarkable triumph at the Amex Stadium?
Brighton vs Everton Stats: The Quick Hits
- Brighton are predicted to overcome Everton when the sides face off at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, winning 48.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s match simulations.
- Everton are winless in their last eight Premier League games, drawing four and losing four, having won six of their previous eight before this run (one draw, one defeat).
- Everton have underperformed their expected goals figures by the biggest margin of any Premier League team in 2024, scoring three times from 8.03 xG. In Dominic Calvert-Lewin (no goals from 2.12 xG), they also have the player with the worst underperformance.
Match Preview
It was Abdoulaye Doucouré’s winner against Bournemouth on the final day that ultimately kept Everton in the Premier League last season, but their biggest result of 2022-23 came at the Amex Stadium – a devastating counter-attacking display with which they trounced Brighton & Hove Albion 5-1 last May. With their 10-point deduction plunging them into yet another fight for survival, Everton are desperate for another landmark result on the same ground on Saturday.
Everton had just 22.3% of the possession and faced 23 attempts on their goal when they last visited Brighton, but Doucouré and Dwight McNeil helped themselves to two goals apiece on the break, while Seagulls shot-stopper Jason Steele also put through his own net in a remarkable game.
The chances of another five-star performance look slim, with Everton toiling in front of goal in recent weeks. No Premier League team has underperformed their expected goals (xG) figures by a greater margin than Everton in 2024 (-5.03, three goals from 8.03 xG), though all three of their goals have come in their last three games (two vs Tottenham and one vs Crystal Palace, either side of a 2-0 defeat to Man City), following a run of three games without a goal against Wolves, Aston Villa and Fulham. They also have the player with the worst underperformance in striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin (no goals from 2.12 xG).
Calvert-Lewin was guilty of spurning several chances in Monday’s 1-1 draw with fellow strugglers Crystal Palace, as his goal drought stretched to 14 Premier League games. Things could have been worse for the Toffees, though, with Jordan Ayew’s stunning strike putting Palace ahead at Goodison Park before Amadou Onana nodded a late equaliser from McNeil’s corner.
All three of Onana’s Premier League goals for Everton have been headers from corners, with the last two of those assisted by McNeil.
Overall, only Arsenal (11) have scored more goals from corners than Everton (10) in the Premier League this season, while 52% of the Toffees’ goals have come from set-pieces (14/27), the highest share in the division (excluding penalties).
While Dyche will be pleased to see Everton’s work on dead-ball situations paying off, their tally of 13 open-play goals is the joint-worst in the division this season, alongside bottom club Sheffield United. Finding other ways to create chances must be a priority for Dyche as the relegation dogfight hots up, and winger Jack Harrison could be an option after Ashley Young was preferred to him last time out.
It’s fair to say chance creation hasn’t been an issue for Brighton, who hammered Sheffield United 5-0 to go seventh in the Premier League table last Sunday. Mason Holgate was sent off for a horror challenge on Kaoru Mitoma, and the Seagulls quickly made their numerical advantage pay as Facundo Buonanotte and Danny Welbeck struck within four first-half minutes. Another flurry followed in the second half, with Simon Adingra netting twice after Jack Robinson’s own goal.
Nine of Brighton’s 10 Premier League wins this season have seen them score at least three goals, with the exception being a 2-1 victory over Brentford. Roberto De Zerbi’s side have scored exactly one goal in nine games this term, drawing five and losing four of those.
The main team news for Brighton is that with leading goalscorer João Pedro still sidelined by a knee injury, Welbeck should keep his place in De Zerbi’s lineup here. He has been involved in eight Premier League goals against Everton (four goals, four assists), only having a hand in more against West Ham (nine).
His goal against Sheffield United last week was his 21st in the Premier League for the Seagulls, now his most for any club (20 for Manchester United, 16 for Arsenal, six for Sunderland, two for Watford).
The task of servicing Brighton’s frontmen will again fall to Pascal Groß, who has been involved in 10 goals in his last 13 Premier League games (two goals, eight assists), including four in his last three. His tally of nine assists in 2023-24 is the most by any Brighton player in a single Premier League campaign, and he could now become the first German to reach double figures in a single season since former Manchester City wideman Leroy Sané in 2018-19 (10).
Brighton vs Everton Head-to-Head
Brighton was not traditionally a happy hunting ground for Everton, but that has changed in recent years.
The Toffees have won their last two away league games against Brighton, as many victories as they managed in their previous eight visits (three draws, three defeats).
In another positive omen for Dyche’s men, the home team has not won any of the last six Premier League games between Brighton and Everton (two draws, four defeats), since the Toffees recorded a 4-2 win at Goodison in October 2020.
The points were shared when the teams last met on Merseyside in November, with Vitaliy Mykolenko’s strike deflecting in off Lewis Dunk for the opener before Ashley Young’s late own goal denied Everton victory.
Recent Form
Brighton have an impressive home record of late, going unbeaten through their last 10 Premier League games at the Amex since losing 3-1 to West Ham last August (five wins, five draws).
They have both scored and conceded in 14 of their last 15 at the Amex, with the exception being a goalless draw with Wolves last month.
However, the Seagulls might fancy their chances of a shutout here, with Everton failing to score in their last three away league games after finding the net in each of their previous five. They last failed to net in four successive away league games under Frank Lampard in November 2022.
Everton enter Matchday 26 on the Premier League’s longest ongoing winless run, failing to record a victory in their last eight games (four draws, four defeats), after winning six of their previous eight (one draw, one loss). With their next three games after this one coming against West Ham, Man Utd and Liverpool, they could do with a result here. They have kept clean sheets in four of their last eight games in all competitions, so given their travails in front of goal, a solid defensive performance may be the key.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brighton vs Everton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Brighton favourites to continue their push for UEFA Europa League qualification on Saturday, with the Seagulls winning 48.6% of match simulations conducted before kick-off.
Everton are given a 23.5% chance of securing what would be a huge win in their fight for survival, while 27.9% of simulations saw the points shared.
The Toffees are now relegated in 19.1% of the supercomputer’s season simulations, finishing 17th in a league-high 26% of scenarios, with Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United deemed most likely to go down.
Brighton, meanwhile, are assigned a 36.9% chance of finishing in the top seven, though it’s currently Newcastle United who are favoured to finish seventh, with eighth (24%) the Seagulls’ most common position across our season projections.
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