Could this be the Premier League title decider? Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola go head-to-head once more as we give our Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Stats: Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts that Manchester City will beat Arsenal, with the home side winning 53% of pre-match simulations.
- Man City are unbeaten in their last 38 home games in all competitions (W33 D5) since a 2-1 loss against Brentford in November 2022.
- Arsenal are looking to complete their first Premier League double over City since 2007-08.
Match Preview
A seismic Premier League clash awaits between title hopefuls Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday as Mikel Arteta takes on former mentor Pep Guardiola for a game that may decide who secures top-flight glory.
Having sat top of the league table throughout the international break, Arsenal head into this weekend’s action clear of Liverpool only on goal difference and with a narrow one-point advantage over reigning English champions City.
That position at the summit is thanks to an eight-game Premier League winning run for Arteta’s men, who also progressed to the UEFA Champions League last eight for the first time since 2010 after a penalty shootout victory over Porto earlier in the month.
Arsenal were 2-1 victors over Brentford in their last league outing, too, albeit that triumph came in somewhat unconvincing circumstances as Kai Havertz produced an 86th-minute winner at the Emirates Stadium, where Yoane Wissa had cancelled out Declan Rice’s opener.
Havertz has found the net in each of his last four Premier League appearances – against Brentford, Sheffield United, Newcastle United and Burnley – to become the only German player to score in four in a row in the competition’s history.
The last Arsenal player to score in five in a row in their debut season with the club was Thierry Henry (a run of seven in 1999-00), though Arteta can also look to Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka, who have created 34 chances for each other this Premier League campaign, more than any other duo.
However, Saka left the England international camp early due to a hamstring injury, causing Arsenal concern that their star winger may not feature in Sunday’s lineup. That same issue goes for Gabriel Magalhães and Gabriel Martinelli, though goalkeeper David Raya will almost certainly return after missing the Brentford clash due to loan agreements with his parent club.
Jurriën Timber is Arteta’s only other longer-term absentee, while Guardiola will sweat over the availability of imperious centre-back John Stones, who limped off early into England’s 2-2 draw with Belgium on Tuesday. In more positive news for Man City, Manuel Akanji, and Kevin De Bruyne could all be fit for the weekend, which will likely come too soon for Matheus Nunes.
A comeback for De Bruyne will be the last thing Arsenal want, considering the Belgian maestro has scored more goals against the Gunners in all competitions (eight) than he has against any other opponent for City. De Bruyne also has five assists against Arteta’s men, only being involved in more goals for the Citizens overall against Southampton (15 – five goals, 10 assists).
Guardiola’s side were last in Premier League action on 10 March when Stones’ inventive set-piece goal was cancelled out by Alexis Mac Allister in a 1-1 draw with fellow title contenders Liverpool at Anfield. City have since progressed to the FA Cup semi-finals, where they face Chelsea, thanks to Bernardo Silva’s double in a 2-0 last-eight victory over Newcastle.
Though a potentially monumental Etihad clash awaits, both sides may also be watching keenly as Liverpool host Brighton earlier in the day, with Jürgen Klopp’s side enjoying the chance to return to the top – at least temporarily.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
City have won 12 of their last 13 Premier League games against Arsenal, though the exception was a 1-0 loss at the Emirates in the reverse fixture this season as Martinelli’s late deflected strike proved the difference.
Arsenal have also lost each of their last seven top-flight away games against Man City, last suffering a longer such league run on the road against Leeds United, losing eight in a row between 1958 and 1968.
Yet following the October victory over Guardiola’s men this term, Arsenal will be looking to complete their first Premier League double over Manchester City since the 2007-08 campaign.
To go even further back, Arsenal have not done a league double over the reigning champions since the 2001-02 term against City’s fierce rivals Manchester United.
Recent Form
No one enjoys visiting the Etihad given City are unbeaten in their last 38 home games in all competitions (W33 D5), since a 2-1 loss against Brentford in November 2022.
That streak is Man City’s second longest run without defeat at home in their history, after a run of 42 between December 1919 and November 1921, while they have scored in each of their last 57 home games in all competitions, their longest such scoring streak in club history.
The last Premier League side to score in more consecutive home games was Man Utd (a run of 61 between September 2010 and November 2012), though Arsenal are in free-scoring form as well after winning their last eight top-flight games, managing 33 goals and conceding just four.
The Gunners have had three runs of 9+ consecutive victories within a single season in the competition, with each one coming during their title-winning campaigns – 10 in 1997-98, 13 in 2001-02 and nine in 2003-04 – can they do it again?
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction
Despite the competing positions between these two sides, the Opta supercomputer backs Manchester City heavily here, with the home side winning 53% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Arsenal’s victory chances are ranked at just 21.2% in the same data-led model, which suggests the draw could occur more often in 25.8%, though that result would open the door for second-placed Liverpool.
Arteta’s side may be top but still have just a 17.8% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy in Opta’s end-of-season simulations, way behind favourites Man City (47.1%) and Liverpool 35.1% – though those predictions could all dramatically change after Sunday.
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