Two teams competing for European qualification face off as the Premier League returns for Matchday 30. We look ahead to Saturday’s game with our Newcastle vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs West Ham Stats: Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer is siding with Newcastle United ahead of Saturday’s early kick-off, with the Magpies beating West Ham in 45.7% of its pre-match simulations.
- Newcastle have picked up 73% of their points in the Premier League this season at home (29/40), with only Fulham (74%) having a higher ratio.
- Alexander Isak has scored in five of his last seven Premier League games, but Newcastle lost four of those five matches in which he found the net. Isak is only the second Newcastle player to score in four separate defeats in a single Premier League season, after Alan Shearer in 2002-03.
Match Preview
As the Premier League season enters its decisive phase, the battle for Europe remains wide open, with just six points separating seventh-placed West Ham from Fulham in 12th.
Newcastle United are another of the teams still in the mix, and Saturday’s meeting with the Hammers at St James’ Park could go a long way to determining their fate.
Newcastle approach Saturday’s game in 10th, four points adrift of West Ham after winning one of their last four Premier League outings (one draw, two defeats). However, with further European places possibly being passed down in the event of England receiving a fifth UEFA Champions League spot, Eddie Howe’s side could yet salvage some success from a frustrating campaign.
Injuries have seriously hampered Newcastle’s attempts to replicate last season’s fourth-place finish, and Howe’s woes deepened during the international break. Sven Botman could miss up to nine months after undergoing anterior cruciate ligament surgery, while Lewis Miley could be out for six weeks after sustaining a back issue while on duty with England’s Under-20s.
Callum Wilson, Joelinton and Nick Pope remain out, though Howe will hope to have full-backs Kieran Trippier and Tino Livramento back after they missed Newcastle’s FA Cup quarter-final defeat at Manchester City.
The fact that Newcastle are still in European contention owes much to their ability to share the goals around. The Magpies have had 19 different goalscorers (excluding own goals) in the Premier League this season, with only Manchester United in 2012-13 – when they won the title – having more in a single campaign (20).
Alexander Isak has had his own fitness issues this term, but he has been Newcastle’s main goal threat when available. The Swedish striker has scored on five of his last seven Premier League appearances, though he has finished on the losing side in four of those matches. The only other Newcastle player to net in four separate Premier League defeats in a single campaign is Alan Shearer, who did so in 2002-03.
Fellow forward Anthony Gordon made his England debut against Brazil last week, and he now faces a crucial period in his bid to make the Three Lions’ Euro 2024 squad. Gordon’s blend of creativity and work rate have put him in Gareth Southgate’s thinking – he ranks sixth among all Premier League players both for chance-creating carries (34) and for total pressures applied (791) this term.
West Ham had the opportunity to pull clear of their fellow European hopefuls before the international break, but David Moyes’ men played out frustrating home draws with Burnley (2-2) and Aston Villa (1-1) either side of a convincing 5-0 win over Freiburg in the last 16 of the UEFA Europa League.
Having rescued a point against Burnley though Danny Ings’ stoppage-time strike, the Hammers thought they had gone one better against Villa when Tomás Soucek bundled home a potential winner deep into stoppage time, only for a VAR check to penalise him for handball.
There was more VAR frustration for another Hammer earlier this week as Jarrod Bowen was denied his first England goal by a marginal offside call in the 2-2 draw with Belgium.
Bowen may be Gordon’s main competitor for a place on the plane to Germany, and he has 14 Premier League goals this season, a tally only bettered by Paolo Di Canio (16 in 1999-00) and John Hartson (15 in 1997-98) in a single campaign with the Hammers.
However, he has only found the net in one of his last 11 league appearances, scoring a hat-trick against Brentford in February.
Teammate James Ward-Prowse now looks highly unlikely to force his way into England’s plans for the Euros, though he has enjoyed a productive first campaign at the London Stadium. His six assists from set-pieces this term are a league-high tally, while only Luton Town’s Alfie Doughty can match his 37 chances created from dead balls.
West Ham have generated 10.88 expected goals (xG) from set-pieces this term (excluding penalties), but perhaps surprisingly, they have only netted seven times from such scenarios. Only five teams – Crystal Palace, Burnley, Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest and Brighton – have been less prolific from set-plays.
Moyes has a couple of selection issues to contend with ahead of Saturday’s game, with Mohammed Kudus doubtful after missing Ghana’s clash with Nigeria due to a shoulder injury. Edson Álvarez is suspended after accumulating 10 yellow cards.
Newcastle vs West Ham Head-to-Head
Newcastle have only lost one of their last nine Premier League games against West Ham overall (four wins, four draws), suffering a 4-2 defeat at home in August 2021.
The Magpies were denied victory in October’s reverse fixture, though, with Kudus’ 89th-minute leveller salvaging a 2-2 draw for West Ham.
West Ham have tended to fair well on Tyneside lately, only losing one of their last five Premier League matches at St James’ (two wins, two draws), suffering a 3-2 defeat in April 2021.
In a positive omen for the hosts, West Ham have lost 16 of their last 17 away Premier League matches against teams who finished the previous season in the top four, though the exception did come this season as they triumphed 2-0 at Arsenal in December.
Recent Form
Newcastle have earned 73% of their Premier League points at home this season (29/40), with only Fulham (74%) having a higher such ratio.
The Magpies have won nine of their 14 home league matches this term (two draws, three losses), while they last reached 10 wins within their first 15 home matches of a Premier League campaign in 2002-03 (11th game).
Newcastle are also one of just three sides – alongside Manchester City and Tottenham – to score in 100% of their home Premier League matches in 2023-24, while they have also kept a competition-high seven clean sheets on their own turf.
West Ham, though, have only lost one of their last six games across all competitions (three wins, two draws), having failed to win any of their previous eight before this run began (four draws, four losses).
The Hammers have, however, gone nine Premier League matches without a clean sheet, with only struggling duo Sheffield United (12) and Burnley (11) currently enduring longer such runs. The Irons managed four straight shutouts before this streak, while they last went 10 league games without a clean sheet in May 2021.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Newcastle vs West Ham Predicted Lineups
Newcastle vs West Ham Prediction
Given Newcastle’s strong home record, it’s no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Magpies favourites, though West Ham are not entirely written off.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Newcastle won 45.7%, with West Ham triumphing in 27.2% and the remaining 27.1% finishing level.
Although West Ham are currently in the driving seat, our season predictions make Newcastle favourites for a top-seven finish, with Opta’s Power Rankings determining that the Magpies have the second-kindest run-in of any Premier League side, after Brentford.
Newcastle finish in the top seven in 36.6% of the supercomputer’s season simulations, with West Ham given an 18.4% chance, also putting them behind Chelsea (30.8%) and Brighton (19.2%).
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