With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.
We have a three-way title race, with defending champions Manchester City the team to beat and Arsenal pushing them until the end, though Liverpool might be slipping away after recent defeats. Meanwhile, almost half the division started the campaign with realistic hopes of European qualification.
There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.
Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer has been making its match picks for every fixture over the course of a hugely exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.
27-28 April: Matchday 35
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of a full weekend of Premier League football.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the table. The top three teams in the standings continue the battle for title glory, while Aston Villa and Tottenham are fighting it out for fourth and the relegation scrap is yet to be fully resolved.
The supercomputer enjoyed a strong round with its picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City emerged triumphant. However, Everton’s win over Liverpool in the Merseyside derby ensured it was not a perfect slate of midweek predictions.
Matchday 35 will see seven fixtures take place on Saturday, with Liverpool’s trip to West Ham in the early game perhaps the biggest clash taking place that day; their defeat to Everton making it an even more important contest for the Reds.
Champions Man City are among the six teams in action on Sunday as they play away against Nottingham Forest, but the most pivotal clash of the week is likely to be Tottenham taking on Arsenal in the north London derby.
Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 35: The Quick Hits
- The north London derby is the headline fixture of the weekend – Arsenal have the hardest path to victory among the three title contenders this week, even though they are still favourites at 40.5%.
- The Opta supercomputer strongly backs Liverpool and Man City to record wins in MD 35, with Pep Guardiola’s men the most confident prediction of the week among the title challengers.
- Aston Villa’s pursuit of a top-four finish continues, while Chelsea are hoping to get back on the wagon after a hefty defeat to Arsenal.
The matchweek gets off to an interesting start on Saturday as West Ham take on Liverpool in the early fixture, with the Reds reeling from their loss to rivals Everton. Their title hopes may have taken a significant dent, but they are still favourites to beat David Moyes’ team, at 53.5%, with the Hammers handed just a 20.9% win probability.
Liverpool have already defeated West Ham 3-1 in the Premier League and 5-1 in the EFL Cup so far this season. This is the 11th different campaign in which they have faced the Hammers 3+ times, though they have never managed to beat them three times in any of the previous 10.
Fulham have lost three of their last four games as they prepare to host Crystal Palace, who are now mathematically safe from relegation after a surprisingly dominant win over Newcastle on Wednesday.
At 29.1%, the draw threat is certainly large here, though the Cottagers are anticipated to clip the Eagles’ wings, with a 41.9% win likelihood. Fulham have won four of their last five London derbies in the Premier League (L1), as many as their previous 44 beforehand (D9 L31). Palace, however, are now unbeaten in their last four visits to Craven Cottage (W2 D2).
Manchester United are at home against Burnley, just days after they made hard work of beating another struggling side in Sheffield United. They eventually won 4-2, moving above Newcastle in the race for European football in the process.
Burnley are in good form and now have a sniff of survival, though Erik ten Hag’s men are still made favourites by the model (58%), with Vincent Kompany’s Clarets only given a 17% chance of winning.
United have never lost a Premier League home game against the previous season’s second tier champions, winning 24 and drawing seven of their 31 such games. Burnley have won just one of their last 32 Premier League games against sides to finish in the top four the previous season (D4 L27), beating Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield in January 2021.
Having played at Old Trafford, it is another difficult trip for Sheffield United up next as they take on Newcastle United at St James’ Park, with Eddie Howe’s men having dropped below Man Utd in the table. However, they are anticipated to win easily against the Blades, whose relegation could be confirmed on the day. Newcastle have a 71.7% win probability, the biggest of any side in the league this weekend.
The Magpies have scored in all 17 of their Premier League home games this season, with their 43 goals in total their most at St James’ Park in a top-flight campaign since 1996-97 (54). They have lost none of their eight Premier League home games against promoted sides under Howe (W3 D5), with their last such defeat coming against Leeds United under Steve Bruce in January 2021. The Blades’ chances of victory are a meagre 9.5%.
Wolves will host a Luton Town team who have won only one of their last 13 Premier League matches and shipped five goals in each of their most recent two defeats. The Hatters are only one point from safety, but Everton’s win in the Merseyside derby was a blow, given the Toffees are now eight points clear.
It means Rob Edwards’ team could really do with a victory at Molineux, but they are not fancied to get it, with our model handing them a 27.7% chance. Wolves have a 44.4% likelihood of winning, while the draw is a reasonable bet at 27.9%.
Everton will have their tails up as they face Brentford in the Saturday early evening fixture.
Indeed, should Luton fail to win, then a victory would guarantee the Toffees’ Premier League status. However, this game is the one most likely to finish all square, at 29.4%, with Everton’s win likelihood at 32.4%, and Brentford’s at 38.2%.
The Bees have scored eight goals in their last two Premier League away games, netting five on the road for the first time ever in the top-flight last time out at Luton. Having gone unbeaten in their first three Premier League games against Everton (W2 D1), Brentford have now lost their last two against the Toffees.
There is also a Saturday night clash to look forward to as Aston Villa take on Chelsea, who were humbled by London rivals Arsenal last time out.
The Villans are pressing to seal a top-four place and at 39.6% of making it, are favourites ahead of Tottenham. The draw threat is 28.3%, with Chelsea handed a 32.1% win probability.
Villa have never lost a Saturday night game in the Premier League (7pm or later), while Chelsea have won just one of their last eight Premier League games outside of London (D2 L5).
Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since before the Premier League era began. The last time they achieved the feat was in 1989-90, when the Blues were a newly-promoted side and the Villans eventually finished the season in second place.
Into Sunday’s fixtures and Bournemouth will play at home against Brighton in a mid-table battle. The supercomputer rates the Seagulls’ chances at 41.2%.
That said, Brighton have won just two of their last 15 Premier League away games (D5 L8), beating Nottingham Forest 3-2 in November and Sheffield United 5-0 in February. There were also hammered 4-0 at home by Man City on Thursday.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2) – only once have they had a longer run without defeat at the Vitality Stadium in the top flight, going six games between May and October 2018.
Tottenham versus Arsenal looks like the game of the weekend, with both sides in need of a positive result. Spurs have won just one of their last six Premier League games against their north London rivals, losing four of those. That’s as many defeats as they had suffered in their previous 16 derbies against the Gunners before this run (W6 D6).
Arsenal have an impressive defensive record this season but will face a Spurs side who have scored in each of their last 25 Premier League home games – their third-longest such run in the competition after two of 29 between January 2016/August 2017, and April 2011/October 2012.
Up to the end of the 2015-16 season, Arsenal vs Tottenham was the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 20 of the 48 meetings between the sides ending level (42%). But since then, just four of the 15 north London derby matches has finished in a draw (27%). The chances of this one finishing level are 28%, with the Gunners favoured in 40.5% of sims, and Spurs in 31.5%.
MD 35 concludes with Nottingham Forest – presumably hoping for a less controversial week – hosting Manchester City. Forest might need a helping hand from the officials, given they have just an 11% chance of pulling off a victory, according to Opta’s model.
Man City are made the big favourites at 69.1%, in what will be Pep Guardiola’s 300th Premier League games in this match. However, City have lost both of their Premier League games in the Midlands so far this season, going down 2-1 at Wolves and 1-0 at Aston Villa. They last lost three consecutive such visits between March and December 2008. Forest, though, have kept just one clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League games, with that coming via a 2-0 win over West Ham in February.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.