As has been the case for basically the entirety of the 21st century, the Western Conference is absolutely loaded.
After Alperen Sengun and the Houston Rockets cooled off from their hot start and the Utah Jazz (some would argue egregiously) gutted their roster at the deadline, there are now 10 teams vying for eight playoff spots.
But the beauty of this year’s race is that all of those teams have an argument (some stronger than others) for making a deep run if the cards fall in their favor. So we’re making that argument for those teams, and including their probability of advancement (according to our supercomputer).
This list is in order of the current Western Conference standings and all of our adjusted team ratings and championship projections are reflective of each team’s chances as of March 1.
Minnesota Timberwolves (42-17)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 51.3%
- Win Conference: 27.7%
- Win Championship: 22.2%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 16
- Defense: No. 1
- Overall: No. 2
The Case: At the start of the 2022-23 NBA season, we ran a study looking at past conference finals teams dating back to 1986. What we found is that there are three types of teams that typically make deep playoff runs: elite offenses, elite defenses, and balanced teams. The Timberwolves fall under the second category. In fact, according to our database (since 1985-86), they are one of the best defensive teams of the last 40 years. Their adjusted defensive rating (ADR) of minus-7.28 (remember, the lower, the better when it comes to defense) is seventh in our database – trailing only the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs (-9.28), 1998-99 Spurs (-8.59), 2003-04 Detroit Pistons (-8.17), 1993-94 New York Knicks (-7.72), 1994-95 Knicks (-7.44) and 2015-16 Spurs (-7.29).
Oklahoma City Thunder (41-18)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 58.7%
- Win Conference: 34.5%
- Win Championship: 24.8%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 3
- Defense: No. 9
- Overall: No. 3
The Case: Speaking of teams that typically contend for titles, the Thunder fall under both the elite offense (an offense with an adjusted offensive rating of 3.5 or higher) and balanced team (an offense with an AOR of 1.5 or higher and a defense with an ADR of 1.5 or lower) categories. Since 1986, 112 of 148 conference finals teams (75.7%) have fallen under one or both of those categories. History often repeats itself, and Oklahoma City’s data points resemble some of the great teams across NBA history.
Denver Nuggets (41-19)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 23.3%
- Win Conference: 8.2%
- Win Championship: 3.5%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 8
- Defense: No. 7
- Overall: No. 4
The Case: The Nuggets haven’t looked like world-beaters this year. Their bench has some major question marks, and the rest of the league is catching up to their once-elite offense (the Nuggets are eighth in AOR after ranking fifth last year). But they are still the defending champions, and they still have Nikola Jokic (No. 2 in DRIP) and the rest of their title-winning starting five. They deserve the benefit of the doubt. It’s just like legendary coach Rudy Tomjanovich once said: “Don’t ever underestimate the heart of a champion.” The data can’t measure that.
Los Angeles Clippers (37-20)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 14.7%
- Win Conference: 6.3%
- Win Championship: 2.3%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 6
- Defense: No. 19
- Overall: No. 9
The Case: Since we’re resorting to overused sports cliches, we might as well whip out the one about this being a star-driven league. And arguably, no team has more star power than the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden are all in the top 12 in DRIP. The Clips are not only the only NBA team to have three players in the top 11, but they’re also the only team with three players in the top 25. There are teams that could give the Clippers a hard time from a matchup standpoint. But if any series develops into a shootout, the Clippers have the firepower to run any team out of the building.
Phoenix Suns (35-24)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 7.0%
- Win Conference: 3.2%
- Win Championship: 0.7%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 10
- Defense: No. 15
- Overall: No. 12
The Case: The star-driven league argument also applies to the Suns with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal – just to a lesser degree (their Big Three is only in the top 120 in DRIP). The Clippers also boast more size (their stars and role players are bigger and longer), more 3-point shooting and better ball handling. The Clips are third in 3-point percentage and 16th in turnover percentage. The Suns are ninth in 3-point percentage and 27th in turnover percentage. Still, outside of the Clippers, the Suns have more star capital than just about anyone in the West.
New Orleans Pelicans (35-25)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 20.0%
- Win Conference: 11.0%
- Win Championship: 5.2%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 12
- Defense: No. 8
- Overall: No. 6
The Case: On paper, the Pelicans seem like a middle-tier Western Conference team. But that’s because they got off to a slow start (9-9). Since Nov. 28, the Pelicans are 26-16 with the seventh-best offense, the fifth-best defense, and fifth-best net rating. Zion Williamson has picked up the intensity after a slow start, CJ McCollum is having one of the best years of his career, Brandon Ingram provides the tough shot-making you need in the playoffs, and the team plays with great physicality (the way to win with poor spacing). New Orleans is a talented and well-balanced team. And if they keep this run of good play going into April, they could win a couple of playoff rounds.
Dallas Mavericks (34-25)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 7.7%
- Win Conference: 3.0%
- Win Championship: 0.5%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 4
- Defense: No. 21
- Overall: No. 11
The Case: Two words: Luka Doncic. You know, the guy who dropped 73 points in a game against the Atlanta Hawks and is the only player in basketball with a better DRIP than Jokic. Along with being a perennial MVP candidate, Doncic has already proven himself to be one of the greatest postseason risers (his scoring volume improves while also maintaining his efficiency) the game has ever seen. Doncic has an answer for any riddle that playoff defenses will try to throw his way. He’s a hard guy to bring down in a fight. And the last time we saw the Mavs in the playoffs, he got them within three wins of the NBA Finals.
Sacramento Kings (33-25)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 5.2%
- Win Conference: 2.2%
- Win Championship: 1.0%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 13
- Defense: No. 22
- Overall: No. 17
The Case: We mentioned this in our “Seven Telling Storylines to Watch During the NBA’s Second Half” analysis after the All-Star break, but the Kings have had some really bad luck. They have the worst opponent shooting luck on wide-open 3-pointers this year (42.9%). Their offense isn’t as strong as it was last year (they were second in AOR last year). But they have the same personnel as last season, which means that they may be able to recapture some of their 2022-23 magic. If that happens, and its opponent shooting luck regresses closer to the mean, Sacramento could turn out to be a real problem in the postseason.
Los Angeles Lakers (33-28)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 1.3%
- Win Conference: <0.1%
- Win Championship: <0.1%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 18
- Defense: No. 18
- Overall: No. 18
The Case: Since LeBron James and Anthony Davis teamed up in 2019, the Lakers have made the Western Conference finals every season that both of them have been fully healthy. The formula of James and Davis, plus a bunch of role players with varying skill sets, is a proven key to success in the postseason. James and Davis are getting older, but they have been healthy this year (knocks on wood), and they are both in the top 22 in DRIP. Simply put, they have the top-end talent to compete with the heavy hitters and the lineup versatility to handle different opponents.
Golden State Warriors (31-27)
Probability of Advancement
- Make Conference Finals: 9.7%
- Win Conference: 3.3%
- Win Championship: 1.3%
Adjusted Team Ratings
- Offense: No. 7
- Defense: No. 11
- Overall: No. 8
The Case: As we recently discussed on Instagram (give us a follow), Jonathan Kuminga’s development this season, along with Brandin Podziemski’s immediate impact (which we kind of predicted), have unlocked a new version of the Death Lineup. In 150 minutes, the lineup of Kuminga, Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green has a plus/minus of +21.9 per 100 possessions. This gives them a five-man lineup that resembles the best lineups we’ve seen from teams that have won the NBA title. Yes, you read that correctly. The Warriors’ dynasty might still open for business.
Check out our MLB and NBA coverage, and our college basketball picks. Follow us on X and Instagram for more!